This is my least favorite story to write because who really knows which one a week after the draft top picks won’t do well in the NFL? The depth is usually a crapshoot and not every choice works out.
These are things I tell myself so that I feel better when I rewrite this story. But before we go any further, I have to hold the ‘L’ when mentioning Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs as a potential failure of last year’s design. That guy is a hottie and I don’t know anything. Okay, now I feel better about writing this story.
Finding five players for this story wasn’t easy, as we tend to associate busts with players selected in the top 15. In the NFC Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze could find immediate success with how well the Bears have built their roster over the past two seasons. I can’t stand Marvin Harrison Jr. not adding because he has the qualities to be a special wide receiver. And it’s always hard to beat offensive linemen because they tend to hit at a high rate, and about 10 were taken in the first round.
But there is always pressure on every first-round pick, and as we know, not every top 32 pick becomes a star in the NFL. Here are the NFC’s five most likely draft busts.
5. Jordan Morgan, OL, Green Bay Packers
The Packers were right to add a top offensive lineman with the No. 25 pick to help Jordan Love, who enjoyed a breakout season in 2023. But I wonder if the Packers selected the right offensive lineman.
They needed a left tackle after cutting David Bakhtiari, but they opted for Morgan, who many draft experts considered a better guard than a tackle. If they wanted a true tackle, the Packers could have selected Tyler Guyton, who went to the Dallas Cowboys four picks later. Perhaps the Packers favored Morgan’s versatility and know he can play left tackle if necessary – he was Arizona’s starting left tackle the past few seasons. Green Bay does need help on the interior of the offensive line.
With the addition of Morgan, the team has options if Rasheed Walker isn’t the long-term answer at left tackle. It’s a tough call, but the Packers may have passed on a prospect with more upside at tackle.
4. Michael Penix Jr., QB, Atlanta Falcons
It’s somewhat strange to add Penix to this list as he may not play for a few seasons. But succession plans don’t always work, with Trey Lance and the San Francisco 49ers being the most recent example. Lance waited a year to play before finally replacing Jimmy Garoppolo as the starter. Injuries occurred, the 49ers ran into Brock Purdy and Lance is now a backup in Dallas.
Clearly, the situation in Atlanta could turn out very differently than what unfolded in San Francisco. But this partnership already exists got off to a rocky start after not informing Kirk cousins of the choice in a timely manner. What if Penix has to play immediately if Cousins gets injured? Will the Falcons prepare for that scenario by having Penix take snaps of the first-team offense during training camp and regular season practices? If the Falcons really want to make this a succession plan, they need to put themselves in tough situations to prepare for all scenarios.
With the quarterback issues of recent years, will Nabers be able to reach his full potential in New York?
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3. Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
I absolutely love this pick for the Giants because you can’t teach the type of explosiveness that Nabers possesses. Over the past seven years, we’ve seen several teams try to build the next Tyreek Hill, but only a few have come close, including the Cincinnati Bengals with Ja’Marr Chase and the 49ers with Deebo Samuel. It’s a luxury to have a player who creates matchup nightmares for defenses and someone capable of converting quick completions into 60-yard touchdowns.
But there are a few risks associated with adding Nabers. He’s not big at 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds, which could be a factor if teams keep him from utilizing his lightning speed. As for the biggest concern, will the Giants help Nabers reach his highest potential? quarterback issues with Daniel Jones and they may not have enough weapons to divert the attention of Nabers; Darius Slayton is the second option. The Giants need coach Brian Daboll to design creative plays, especially if Jones has another pedestrian season.
2. Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
The comparisons to Lamar Jackson are fair because Daniels is the only player in FBS history to pass for at least 12,000 yards and rush for 3,000 yards. His athleticism likely set him apart from Drake Maye, especially since coach Dan Quinn knew well how difficult it is to game plan for signal callers who can extend plays and gain yards on the ground.
But Daniels, who has a slim frame at 210 pounds, will have to learn how to avoid hits in the NFL and develop precise timing for when to start running. For the most part, Jackson has done that in the NFL, but he has had his fair share of injuries. Moreover, commanders have not been proven right much since the 1990s and do not deserve the benefit of the doubt just because they have new owners and decision makers. If Daniels shows durability, we could definitely see the No. 2 pick surpassing Jackson comparisons.
1. JJ McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings
McCarthy may have the best environment among first-round quarterbacks, including what Williams has in Chicago. The Vikings are favored over the Bears because the coaching staff, led by Kevin O’Connell, has proven they can produce a dynamic offense and they have Justin Jefferson.
McCarthy doesn’t have to be a star signal caller to make the Vikings a playoff team, but teams don’t use top-10 picks for safe play managers. McCarthy got a lot of draft hype because his low pitch count in a tough Michigan offense somehow gave him more upside, as it’s a bit mysterious as to how much the 21-year-old can improve. He doesn’t have the skills of Maye, the experience of Penix and isn’t as good a creator as Williams and Daniels.
That might explain why he was the fifth quarterback taken in the NFL draft. But as a top-10 pick, the Vikings can’t afford for McCarthy to be the fifth-best quarterback when it’s all said and done. The bar is high for McCarthy and we’ll soon learn if he had the most upside among his peers or if he’s just a serviceable signal-caller with limitations. The Vikings are hoping for the former.